10/26/2020 Election update
Democrats typically have a large lead in early voting and this year it was expected that lead would increase. Democrats, who dominate big cities, would be less likely to risk voting in person than Republicans who live in less densely populated areas. Many stays eased early voting rules, and Democrats really pushed early voting which exaggerated the disparity.
Gallup reporting voter turnout looks steady compared to the last 2 elections. This means only about 57–60% of those who are eligible to vote, will vote. The US Election Project, which takes available data and aggregates it says, “There are a lot of Democratic mail ballots still outstanding. Will Democrats return them by Election Day, as is required for all but military and overseas civilian voters? How much will Republicans make up ground with in-person early voting?”
In the last week, as more states allow in-person voting the disparity between mail-in ballots and in-person has narrowed by 6% and the GOP has picked up 4.8% more voters than democrats. Let us look at three states together; North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
Take my home state of North Carolina wherein 2016 Democrats led by 310,000 votes going into election day. As of 10/26 the Democrats lead by a mere 326,000 votes and if that trend continues, they will be up only 300,000 votes going into election day a 10,000 vote decrease. In 2016 Trump carried North Carolina by 3 points, so they need every early advantage they can find. This is not a great trend for Joe Biden.
In Florida, 5.9% more Democrats have voted than Republicans. Down from over 13% just last week. If Republicans show up on election day, as they do historically, then Biden is unlikely to prevail. In Florida, democrats requested 2.6 million mail-in ballots, to just 1.8 million by the GOP. Florida democrats need nearly a 600,000 vote lead in returned mail-in ballots to have a change in my opinion, and right now that lead is just 610,000 and likely to drop as we get closer to election day.
It isn’t all good news for Trump supporters, as Democrats have a large voting lead in Pennsylvania with over 1 million votes cast versus just under 300,000 for registered Republicans. Now Trump can win the presidential election without Pennsylvania, but it makes the needle that much tougher to thread. Pennsylvania Republicans will need to show up and show out on the 3rd. The comments for Biden on ending the oil industry certainly will not help his cause. Democrats requested 1.9 million mail ballots, compared to only 761,000 by the Republicans. So, Democrats need a 1 million vote lead to feel good or a gigantic snowstorm to lower voter turnout in a state that Trump barely carried 4 years ago.
Republican and Democrat voting can tell us a bit about the election, but in reality, nearly every state is going to be won or lost by those who are registered as Independents, those who aren’t registered with either mainstream party. In states that are reporting who voted (not how) Independents have 23% of the total vote. However, enthusiasm is down for this group according to pollsters. How, and who turns out and votes out of this group will most likely decide who is president for the next four years.
