NC early voting analysis through 10.18.2020
North Carolina analysis
In 2016 Trump won more votes in the USA then any GOP candidate in History. In 2016 in North Carolina Trump won by about 180,000 votes: Clinton 2,189,316 (46.2%) — Trump 2,362,631 (49.8%). So lets look at 2020 and what we know as of this past Saturday (10/17) according to Elect Project https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html. Nationally about 40% of votes are cast early, and that number is expected to be much higher this year.
Let us look at mail in ballets requested by party, the Democrats requested 643,926 which is about 29% of the total votes for Hillary in 2016, the GOP has requested 269,372 which is about 11% of total votes for Trump. Independents have requested 465,627 and I assume broke Trump and typically break towards the GOP in our state.
In 2016 1.3 million democrats (41.7% of total democrat voters) voted early or absentee, and just under 1 million in the GOP voted early and 815,434 (31.9%) of independents (26% of total). http://www.electproject.org/early_2016
So far 833,736 (D), 486,672 (R) and 526,355 (I) have voted early with two weeks left. In-person early voting has seen 517,315 (D), 367,111 (R), 323,414 (I) through the data updated on 10/18.
We don’t know how the independents will break, but we should be able to look at the Democrat vote and see they need to expand on the 305,000 vote lead they had going into election day assuming independents break within a few points of 2016.
So far 22.3% of those who voted have voted for the first time. I don’t know how to interpret that, other than the small sample size that I know (3) all voted Trump. We also know that the GOP has narrowed our registration gap in the state by 236,000 voters, which would make me believe these voters are favoring Trump.
In Moore County we need to get every vote we can, we have 72,739 registered voters and so far 20,193 have voted or 27.8%.
